Aviation Gas Turbines

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Welcome to the PowerWeb Aviation Gas Turbine data and information section. On this page, we provide detailed charts and data from Forecast International's Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast. The data covers the world market for aviation gas turbines (both civil and military), which includes Turbofan Engines, Turboprops, Turboshafts, Aviation Auxiliary Power Units (APUs), and turbojet engines for missiles and UAVs. We also provide an analysis of top manufacturers and engine programs.

Market Highlights Sales USD Total Units Turbofans Turboshaft Turboprops All Other
2021 Forecast: 55.9B 11,488 5,042 2,314 1,081 3,051
2020 Actuals: 45.4B 9,993 4,389 2,085 915 2,604
2020-2021 Change +20.9% +14.9% +14.8% +10.9% +18.1% +17.1%
Turbofan Engine Sales Turboprop Engine Sales Turboshaft Engine Sales Aviation APU Sales
5-Year Aviation Gas Turbine Engine Data

Aviation Gas Turbine Data: 25-Year Overview (2010-2034) - Manufacturers - Engine Types and Models

The world market for aviation gas turbines was in the midst of a tremendous re-equipment cycle that has now been abruptly delayed due to 1) the Boeing 737 MAX grounding and production suspension and 2) even more so, the fallout of coronavirus or COVID-19 which has taken a huge toll on air travel demand and aerospace manufacturing.

Despite the severe disruptions in the marketplace, the lost terrain will be regained and the long-term growth trajectory is intact. During the forecast period 2021–2035, the market is forecast to comprise the production of some 231,700 gas turbine engines, with a combined total value of almost $1.3 trillion in 2021 dollars.

FI Aviation Gas Turbine Engine Forecast
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Production of Aviation Gas Turbines - Data and Analysis

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At Forecast International, we are pleased to present a summary of the latest forecast information on the world's aviation gas turbines. This information has been derived directly from the Aviation Gas Turbine module of Forecast International's revolutionary Platinum Forecast System®, the only one of its type worldwide.

There is an interesting aspect of the symbiotic relationship between aircraft and engines. While the latter comprise major components of new airplanes, the availability of advanced new gas turbine engines has, in fact, been one of the major stimuli in the development and production of a whole crop of new advanced-design aircraft of many types. Over the past dozen or more years, the makers of gas turbines have introduced a succession of dramatic breakthroughs in technology, resulting in increased maintainability and reliability, better thrust-to-weight ratios, and almost unbelievable reductions in specific fuel consumption. These factors, combined with increased usage of synthetic materials, have enabled the airframers to capitalize on the weight savings achieved and produce new designs with higher passenger capabilities and much greater range, while also incorporating enhanced safety features.

The Aviation Gas Turbine module of our Platinum Forecast System incorporates forecasts for every projected airframe of each and every type worldwide, and converts them into a demand curve for each of the respective engine types, including installed on-the-wing power, plus pipeline spares in the form of whole engines or equivalent sets of components.

In 2020, the coronavirus, or COVID-19, took a huge toll on air travel demand and aerospace manufacturing. Boeing, Airbus and other aircraft manufacturers have been forced to temporarily suspend production at many facilities and cut production rates left and right. Airlines are asking for deliveries to be postponed as they have no passengers to fill them. In Boeing's case, 2019 was marred by the grounding of the 737 MAX fleet, which is continuing well into 2020 with production currently on pause.

Despite the thunderstorms and microbursts that have hit the aerospace industry in the past year, over the next 15 years and beyond, the market for aviation gas turbines will recover and return to growth. Forecast International projects a return to growth in 2021 and that 2022 will be a year of normalization, where the lost ground in 2020 and 2021 is regained. In 2024, the skies should be clear and Aviation Gas Turbine sales will likely again set new all time record highs. While sales and backlogs at aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers are taking a hit in the short-term due to cancellations and production disruptions, the long-term trend of strong growth is intact.

COVID-19 and the 737 MAX crashes are what people in the world of financial investment refer to as black swans. A black swan is a low-probability, high-impact event. It can also be described as an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences.

Aviation Gas Turbine Production in Units from 2010 to 2034
Platinum Forecast Syatem

Let us look initially at where the total aviation gas turbine market has come from and where it is headed over the next 15 years. The chart above traces historical production over the past 10 years and sums it up at just over $639 billion in constant 2021 dollars. However, by the same yardstick, our forecasts for the next 10 years (2021-2030), including the major adverse impacts from the 737 MAX and COVID-19 disruptions, call for an incredible production value of $843 billion with another $473 billion following from 2031-2035 for a total of $1.3 trillion over the next 15 years. Our analysts have a high level of confidence in the accuracy of these forecasts, as a great many of them are based upon orders and options for new aircraft already on the books. Despite the recent surge in cancellations, the vast majority of aircraft on the books are needed going forward to satisfy rapid air travel growth, when COVID-19 is eventually behind us.

For analysis purposes, we divide the worldwide Aviation Gas Turbine market into five distinctive market segments: (1) Turbofan Engines; (2) Turboprop Engines; (3) Aero Turboshaft Engines; (4) Turbojet Engines (missile/UAV); and (5) Aviation APU Engines.

The accompanying pie chart (click link to view) displays the apportioning of these segments by units projected to be built. However, when the market is divided by projected values as displayed in this pie chart, the picture is quite different.

Examining this market in terms of the types of gas turbines that it will comprise, the pie charts (see links above) and line chart (left) demonstrate clearly, despite the sharp 2020 drop, that turbofans will be the dominant type of engines produced, as they will power most of the airliners, all of the business jets and, coupled with thrust-augmenting afterburners, the very high-performance fighters of the future. Turbofans will represent over 46% of the units produced (incl. augmented turbofans), but, because many of them are very large and costly engines, they will comprise some 92% of the value, certainly the lion's share. The combined forecast of the turbofan market through 2034 will total an incredible $1.3 trillion in constant 2020 dollars!

Aviation Gas Turbine Production Units by Type of Engine from 2010 to 2034

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Forecast International's Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast provides detailed coverage of all major civil and military engine programs throughout the world. Turbofan, turboshaft, and turboprop engines are all featured, making this volume the ultimate resource on the full expanse of this market. Various submarkets are featured as well, including engines used on airline and military transports, business jets, rotorcraft, fighters, regional transports, and missiles/drones/UAVs. The Aviation Gas Turbine Forecast tracks the impact of economic developments on market segments and identifies the aviation platforms that will represent new market opportunities in the years ahead.

Completing the service are seven appendices that provide consolidated production statistics, 10 years of historical production for aftermarket evaluation, and a directory of aviation gas turbine manufacturers and packagers, among other pertinent data.

ANALYSIS: COVID-19 Pandemic Takes Its Toll on Turbofan Market

Production of turbofan engines fell sharply in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on airline travel. Production will begin to increase in 2021. However, the recovery will be gradual, and we do not expect to see 2019's level of over 6,000 engines produced annually until 2023.

Forecast International forecasts the delivery of 70,205 new turbofan engines during 2021-2030, with production growing from a low of just over 5,000 engines in 2021 to almost 7,800 in 2027.

Civil aircraft continue to drive demand in the turbofan market, accounting for 58,314 engines, or over 83 percent of the worldwide turbofan market overall. The value of this production at estimated list prices will reach $737 billion.

The most significant drivers in the civil market continue to be the demand for civil airliners, particularly in the narrowbody segment. Demand for the latest generation of aircraft from Airbus and Boeing fell precipitously in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, reducing demand for next-generation turbofans like General Electric's GEnx, Rolls-Royce's Trent XWB, CFM International's LEAP-1, and Pratt & Whitney's PurePower family. However, this is a temporary disruption, and we expect demand to slowly recover during 2021-2025. The market is in the middle of a generational change in engine technology that will see the demand for popular engines like the CFM56, GE CF6 and CF34 continue to shrink.

In the military segment of the turbine market, production will total just over 11,891 units worth $71.4 billion during 2021-2030. The military market is much smaller than the civil market, accounting for 17 percent of unit production of the turbofan market overall. However, the military turbofan market was largely unaffected by COVID-19 in 2020, offering an important source of revenues to manufacturers in a difficult business climate.

Only six manufacturers and their subsidiaries and joint ventures account over 90 percent of unit production in the turbofan market overall, making the market highly concentrated in a few big players. These manufacturers are GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, CFM International (a joint venture between Safran and GE Aviation), Williams International, and Honeywell International. Russian engine manufacturers continue to have very little market penetration outside of their traditional military applications, and Chinese turbofans are so far mostly limited to Chinese military aircraft programs.

Aviation Gas Turbine Production Values from 2010 to 2034
Platinum Forecast Syatem
FI Aviation Gas Turbine Engine Forecast

Aviation Gas Turbines | Military Turbofan, Turboprop and Turboshaft Engines